In the previous post I outlined the topic of H+ rather broadly — let’s go deeper and consider what our world might actually look like very soon. An avant-garde topic, yet the trajectory of civilizational development allows me to paint bold visions — perhaps even ones that don’t go far enough. Artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, body augmentation, bionic limbs — sounds like the seed of a B-movie screenplay. Except that 10 years ago, few would have said that tourists would soon be flying into space. That would have been grotesquely absurd. I watched the successful landing of Inspire4 with my kids today. Twenty years ago, the idea of having a computer in your phone — or even your glasses — would have been equally ridiculous. Think about it this way though: from 2000 BC to 1804 AD, the primary means of transport was the horse — then came the locomotive. Just 82 years later, the first automobile was patented. 17 years after that, the airplane. 67 years later, we landed on the moon using a computer with 1/16th the processing power of your washing machine. Today’s landing was fully autonomous; one of the astronauts/tourists was watching “Spaceballs” at the time. H+ is coming whether we’re ready for it or not.
From the general… on H+
An incredible development in artificial intelligence, bionic limbs, body augmentation, nanotechnology, bioengineering and all related fields awaits us. Each of these industries/technologies has the potential to completely transform the foundations of our economic and social existence. All of these fields are being developed by the world’s largest corporations, the brightest minds at national research institutes, and of course by startups in every corner of the globe.
Now think about the consequences of all these growth trees developing simultaneously.
A handful of examples from the world of… everything
Foxconn in 2016 announced the “replacement” of 60,000 people with robots. That’s just one of many examples of the slow automation of basic labor. We already have factories and huge warehouses that require human oversight mostly only for the robots themselves. These aren’t low-paid line workers but skilled engineers. Autonomous cars drive on Japanese roads — and not just as a small test. This is part of broader trials, and if successful, these types of vehicles will be ferrying people around Tokyo during the 2020 Olympic Games. Given the COVID-19 situation, whether autonomy will take hold we’ll find out in a year — though I’d wager yes. Recently, “Tony Stark” gave a bionic arm to an American child. These are brief, basic examples that could be multiplied endlessly, in every corner of the world.
Is Universal Artificial Intelligence, or people removing healthy arms, eyes, or anything else to replace them with bionic equivalents, really so distant? I don’t think so. My sense is that we’re looking at the next 15–20 years, not 50.
The future continues, or: we’ll all lose our jobs
We do have a certain problem here, because Artificial Intelligence — even not Universal, but basic AI — is slowly blowing up one industry after another. I have no doubt that construction sites, factories, and sanitation services will soon have very few humans. Unfortunately, I also have bad news for the comfortably seated white-collar workers — we’re next. I have no doubt that algorithms will first replace lower-level employees such as analysts and IT workers, then come for the creatives, and finally take the heads of everyone else, including those who program AI itself.
Perhaps there will be increased value for people who are thoroughly augmented — spines, arms, legs — making them as strong as an excavator with the dexterity of a human. Likely many corporations will warmly welcome people with chips in their heads who can connect directly to their systems. Each such employee will do their work far faster than everyone else. Some may even work around the clock — “after hours” passively, reserving part of their capacity for company needs. This will be a true revolution, but most of us will be left behind, useful neither to the 1% nor to “the system.”
In that case, only subsistence will remain. Unless… we’re saved by Universal Basic Income. I don’t know who will pay for 8 billion people who effectively do nothing. Of course, we can tell ourselves beautiful stories about how when everyone is secure in their livelihood they will begin to develop creatively and artistically — but let’s be realistic. I’ll say it again: 8 billion beings, most of them confined to apartments or shacks averaging 35 square meters. Unfortunately, the realities of life can be overwhelming, and with all due respect to governments, media, and corporations — none of them have any particular desire to enrich people spiritually or intellectually so they might cope with the sudden absence of the obligation to work.
Perhaps, however, we’ll have an answer.
Dark visions are easy to conjure — but what about solutions? I don’t think idiocracy or civilizational degeneracy await us. It’s quite amusing, but I suspect it’s precisely the AI that Musk and others so fear that will prevent it. Perhaps through indirect means, but I think that despite appearances it will be part of the solution. We’ll likely have to abandon our tribal instincts and swap a pro-natalist benefit for an anti-natalist one. Through taxes and augmentation incentives, we’ll be encouraged to have at most one child (via safe contraception). This sounds terrible, of course, and for the religious portion of society it is completely absurd and unthinkable — but for the good of all those potential young people… God will understand. This is actually a preamble to a follow-up post I’ll write soon, so perhaps I’ll end here with just one final thought:
I deeply believe in the wisdom of humanity and that through progress we will reach the next milestone of our civilization. I’m certain that life will change completely within our lifetimes — to the point where our great-grandparents would not be able to comprehend it. But I’m equally certain that it will be a better future, one we’ll soon be able to call the Golden Age of Humanity.